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@inproceedings{Jos\'{e}2016Effects-basedb,

title = {A system dynamics approach for aiding effects-based operations planning},

author = {Jos\'{e} Carlos Melo J\'{u}nior and Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain and Ana Lucia Pegetti},

url = {https://www.sige.ita.br/edicoes-anteriores/2016/st/ST_05_2.pdf},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

booktitle = {Simp\'{o}sio de Aplica\c{c}\~{o}es Operacionais em \'{A}reas de Defesa 2016 (SIGE2016)},

abstract = {The environment in which military operations occur have changed significantly. Asymmetric conflicts have become the prevalent form of warfare, replacing the traditional symmetric warfare in terms of geopolitical importance. This new operation environment has given rise to effects-based operations approach. This new concept requires decision makers to adopt a systemic perspective rather than an event-oriented worldview. However, warfare is complex and dynamic. Cause and effect are often distant in space and time and dysfunctional behaviour can arise from systems \textendash some seemingly obvious solutions to problems fail or even worsen the initial situation. To address this issue, the system dynamics methodology is presented as a method which allows decision makers to overcome human cognitive limitations and to design more effective policies. To this end, a basic model of guerrilla warfare is developed and explored for the purpose of demonstrating how the methodology can explain much of the behaviour of warfare.},

keywords = {Effects-based operations EBO, System Dynamics},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}